You can hear gurus in the media saying the market is about to rally and on the other hand other gurus saying just the opposite. Just this week it was David Tepper from Appaloosa Management saying the market is as ‘cheap’ as a year ago and you get many others saying the market is expensive:
– Caution: U.S. stocks have rarely been this expensive
– GOLDMAN SACHS: Pain is coming for investors with markets the most expensive since 1900
Legendary investor Jim Rogers is saying for years (I remember since 2013) that the market will crash with worst results comparing to 2008; says that he is very worried. He explains that the amount of dedb is staggering and that someone should pay for the cheap money the government has created over the years since the 2008 crises. He is a smart guy (retired at the age of 37 and George Soros said he did the work of 6 or 8 during their time in Quantum fund) and must be right about the problems he points. However he also says that he is the worst in the world in timing which found to be right.
Marc Faber, Peter Schieff and others – same as Jim Rogers; all smart people and been saying for years that the market is just about to crash. I remember Robert Kiyosaki had a column in yahoo finance where he expected 2010 to be a dead cat bounce. We know that never happened.
Jesse Livermore wrote that whenever he listened to market gurus he lost money. They are intelligent, write in papers, show up in TV and make good arguments. Sometimes they are wrong just in timing and sometimes in the direction.
In our research center we follow hedge funds but usually not a single fund and we combine it with additional metrics and factors.
So when the average investor ask for advice I tend to quote Robert Kiyosaki saying: my advice for the average investor – don’t be average 🙂
But seriously what you need is to develop a method that is good for you (also test it) and stick to it no matter what gurus are saying.